Incarnate Word

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	347.0
Current RPI:	347
Expected SOS:	311
Current SOS:	311
Current Record:	3-21
Expected Record:	3-21
Current Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-14
Current OOC Record:	1-5
Expected OOC Record:	1-5
Expected OOC RPI:	277
Expected OOC SOS:	88

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-21	347.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Incarnate Word.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-22	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	87-91	L	0%
11-25	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	97-58	L	0%
11-29	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	103-68	L	0%
12-16	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	77-73	W	100%
12-19	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	72-66	L	0%
12-22	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	75-60	L	0%
12-28	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	85-62	L	0%
12-30	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	77-60	L	0%
1-6	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	74-85	L	0%
1-10	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	92-76	L	0%
1-13	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	83-63	L	0%
1-17	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	69-90	L	0%
1-20	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	74-70	L	0%
1-24	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	102-86	L	0%
1-27	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	58-68	L	0%
2-3	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	51-56	L	0%
2-7	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	68-86	L	0%
2-10	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	80-69	L	0%
2-14	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	85-62	L	0%
2-17	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	70-81	L	0%
2-21	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	54-66	L	0%
2-24	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	62-69	W	100%
2-28	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	83-71	W	100%
3-3	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	59-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Incarnate Word's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Incarnate Word's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Incarnate Word.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Incarnate Word	Slnd	26.32	26.32	11.61	11.61	-20.21	-20.21
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	5.17	5.17	29.17	29.17	-2.15	-2.15
New Orleans	Slnd	5.15	5.15	38.46	38.46	-1.19	-1.19
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	5.14	5.14	78.57	78.57	2.94	2.94
Lamar	Slnd	5.13	5.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	5.04	5.04	7.69	7.69	-4.26	-4.26
Abilene Christian	Slnd	5.02	5.02	40.00	40.00	-1.00	-1.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	3.24	3.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	3.16	3.16	48.39	48.39	-0.10	-0.10
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	3.13	3.13	62.07	62.07	0.76	0.76
McNeese St.	Slnd	3.12	3.12	29.17	29.17	-1.30	-1.30
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.09	3.09	59.26	59.26	0.57	0.57
Northwestern St.	Slnd	3.01	3.01	4.17	4.17	-2.75	-2.75
Gonzaga	WCC	2.22	2.22	87.88	87.88	1.68	1.68
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.22	2.22	31.03	31.03	-0.84	-0.84
Houston	Amer	2.20	2.20	78.12	78.12	1.24	1.24
UTEP	CUSA	2.16	2.16	31.03	31.03	-0.82	-0.82
Florida	SEC	2.11	2.11	61.29	61.29	0.48	0.48
UMKC	WAC	2.08	2.08	28.57	28.57	-0.89	-0.89
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.27	0.27	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.19	0.19	80.65	80.65	0.12	0.12
Baylor	B12	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
SMU	Amer	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
BYU	WCC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Cincinnati	Amer	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
USC Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.04	0.04	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.04	0.04	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.04	0.04	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.04	0.04	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.04	0.04	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.04	0.04	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.04	0.04	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.04	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.04	0.04	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00